Just how ambitious should you be with your initial five UCAS choices?
Originally published October 2023. Minor amendments made August 2024.
The basic principle behind the UCAS system is that it balances the need for students to have a range of choices when they apply, with the need for universities to have some kind of predictability in working out how many offers to make. So, for many years, students have been able to make up to five choices. Any more, and the universities will simply be swamped with applications that are not realistic or necessary. Any less and you could run the risk of not getting an offer of a place that suits you.
The system works reasonably well most of the time, provided students are realistic with their applications, and provided universities are transparent with their entry criteria, and consistent with their offers. Last year nearly 79% of A-level students secured their firm choice (ie. their first choice course), while 12% got into their insurance choice.
So, how do you make sure the system works well for you? How do you turn all that research, all those possible choices, into a list of five courses on your application form that gives you the best chance of getting into a course that you really want to do? Is it as simple as listing your five favourite courses? I’m afraid not. But neither is it some dark art where you need to have some amazing insight and specialist knowledge to get it right. Just read on, and I’ll try to make it as simple as possible.
Qualifications, entrance grades and getting an offer
Your qualifications and your predicted grades
You know what grades you already have in whatever qualifications you have taken (though I’m sometimes amazed that some students don’t seem to remember!) and you’ll put these in your UCAS form. Your school will then make predictions for your current qualifications and will also put these on your form.
Make sure you know what these predictions are, and have an honest discussion with your teachers as to how likely you are to meet the predictions. Be aware that there is a very real possibility that you will not achieve what the school has predicted. (I don’t have figures for 2023 or 2024, but three years of data to 2019 showed that only 16% of students met or exceeded their predicted grades).
Required subjects and unacceptable subjects
Every university will publish their required entry qualifications. E.g. you must have Maths A-level. They will give equivalences of these in other qualifications. The bottom line is that if you are not taking a required subject, don’t apply. It’s that simple.
There will sometimes be subjects that the university doesn’t accept (e.g. a few universities don’t accept General Studies or Critical Thinking A-levels), in which case they will state this on their websites.
Typical offers and grade requirements
This is where things get a little trickier, but you will find that almost all universities will publish a set of grades that they are looking for, for each of their courses. Something like:
A-levels ABB; BTEC Extended diploma DDM; IB with 36 points; or Scottish Highers at AABB.
This generally means that IF they make an offer to you, it will be conditional upon you getting those grades (OR that if you already have those grades, you are likely to receive an unconditional offer).
Some universities use something called UCAS tariff points; a system that gives a points score to different qualifications. You can find the details on UCAS, but essentially, the system enables the university to ask for a certain number of tariff points instead of asking for grades for each qualification. So, for example a university might ask for 136 points. If you were taking three A-levels, you’d need AAB, if taking a BTEC Extended diploma it would be DDD, or if taking Scottish Highers then it’s ABBBB.
You may be taking a combination of qualifications, such as a BTEC Diploma plus an A-level. This is pretty common, and you can generally talk to an adviser from their admissions office who will let you know what offer you could receive.
If you are taking non-UK qualifications, there will generally be an outline of the requirements for your qualifications too. If it’s not detailed enough, just ask the International Office and they will help.
The chances of getting an actual offer
This is where things get very tricky, and it is important that you are aware just how much variation there can be so that you can make good, well informed choices.
For many universities and courses, the situation is pretty simple; IF you have predicted grades that are near to the grades they publish AND you have shown some decent motivation and interest in your personal statements, THEN you will get an offer. That offer will be the one that they have published. I would go so far as to say that this will be true for the majority of courses where there are no interviews, auditions or other selection tests. The majority, that is, except for the top 30 or so most competitive universities.
So what happens at these more competitive universities and courses? Well, such is the pressure on places, and such has been the unpredictability of grades during the pandemic, the most competitive courses have started to be more and more selective. They generally have lots of students applying with the right predicted grades, and so they will look more closely at other aspects of the application.
They may look for students whose predictions actually exceed the published entry grades. They may look back at GCSEs (or equivalent), and only make offers to students with extremely high grades at these. They may look very closely at the Personal Statements and reference, perhaps grading them, and only offering places to the very strongest. The further up the competitive table the university is, the more difficult it gets. The tricky thing is that the sector changes from year to year, and while universities are good at adjusting their grades and publishing these, they don’t generally publish information which will help you to know exactly how competitive it will be in a given year.
And then there are the courses with admissions tests, interviews, auditions or portfolios. Each stage in the process is designed to select the best candidates, and filter out others, thus reducing your likelihood of success further.
Spreading your applications to deal with the unknown
So how do you take account of all of this when you make your choices? After all, it is pretty much impossible to know exactly how competitive the most competitive courses will be. Plus you don’t know how your exams will go, and how good your actual grades will be.
The secret is to have a range of course choices, some of which may be ambitious, some that will be mid-range and realistic, and some that will be very safe.
I would suggest you break your five choices down into the following:
Your stretch choices
You should use no more than two choices on courses that are stretching, or ambitious. These could be courses that have entry grades that are above your predicted grades, or are equal to your predicted grades, but at one of the most competitive universities. They could be choices where you know there is an interview process, and while you are not confident of an offer, you think you could get a place if all goes well and you perform at your best. Perhaps you have predictions AAB? A stretch offer would be for a course quoting entry grades AAA, and perhaps an interview or other entry test.
Your realistic choices
You should then have at least two choices that are realistic; in line with your predictions and not at the very most competitive universities. They may still have interviews, auditions, or entry tests, but you are confident that you are at a level where you can handle these, and your teachers and advisers are suggesting the applications are realistic. If your predicted grades are AAB, a realistic option is one where the entrance grades are AAB or ABB.
Your safety choices
That should leave one or two spaces for your safety options, which would be courses where the requirements are at a level that you are 100% confident you will achieve, even on a bad day. With those predicted grades at AAB, a safety option could be one where the offer is BBB, and there is no interview or other selection process in the way.
By spreading your five choices across a range like this, you maximise your chances of getting a good place, regardless of the outcome of interviews, tests and of course your exams.
Getting support and help with your five choices
Be aware that you don’t need to make these decisions on your own. Sure, you will ultimately be the one going off to study for several years, but you are not the only one who knows your strengths, your preferences and your limitations.
So speak to family and friends, but most importantly speak to the university adviser at your school or college. Allow them to really get to know what is most important to you, and then really listen when they try to help you with your final selection.
Update: UCAS historical entry grades
Since writing this article in 2023, UCAS have launched their new historical entry grades data. To find out all about it, and how it can help you with your choices, have a look at:
